The $20 Billion Conundrum: Why Chrome Is Both Invaluable and Unsellable at the Same Time

The Department of Justice is proposing to require Google to sell Chrome as part of its antitrust case. Although this may seem like a straightforward approach, the reality is much more complex. Chrome, which has been independently valued at up to $20 billion, could struggle significantly if separated from the Google ecosystem.

Why it matters. Chrome dominates the web browser market, capturing approximately two-thirds of the market share on mobile and desktop platforms. However, its true value lies not only in its browser functionality but also in its integration with Google’s entire ecosystem. This includes services like search and advertising.

Understanding the implications. The value of Chrome to Google extends well beyond its use as a browser. It serves multiple important roles, including:

• It provides a privileged view into the browsing habits of billions of users.
• It acts as a driver for web standards.
• It functions as a gatekeeper, ensuring that Google’s search engine remains the default choice for those billions of users.

Context. The DOJ’s proposal raises more questions than it answers. Who would be willing and able to invest in a browser that requires significant ongoing development and maintenance costs, especially without access to Google’s highly profitable advertising ecosystem?

For instance, Mozilla is facing a structural rather than cyclical crisis. Firefox is barely surviving, struggling to maintain its user base rather than grow. Interestingly, the majority of its revenue (between 80% and 90%) comes from agreements with Google. Although Mozilla has attempted to reduce this dependency, its efforts haven’t been very successful.

In depth. Google’s situation is reminiscent of Microsoft’s dominance with Internet Explorer in the 1990s. However, there’s a crucial difference: Today’s web is much more complex in every aspect.

Chrome isn’t merely a browser. It’s part of a vast infrastructure that includes Chromium, the open-source project used by nearly all other browsers, including Edge, Brave, Opera, and Arc.

A paradox. The world’s most popular browser, which far outstrips its nearest competitor, may be worth significantly less outside the ecosystem created by Google. It could be worth much less than its estimated value of $20 billion.

Perhaps the solution lies not so much in separating Chrome from Google but in regulating how the company uses its browser in order to maintain its dominance in search and online advertising.

Image | Growtika

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