This Is the Beginning of the End of Google’s Monopoly—and This Time, It’s for Real

For more than two decades, experts have predicted Google’s demise. The supposed “Google killers”—Bing, DuckDuckGo, and others—have come and gone. None posed a serious threat. What’s happening now is different, and it’s not just a new competitor. It’s a fundamental change to Google’s business model.

The issue isn’t that someone has built a better search engine. It’s that search itself, as it has been for 25 years, is becoming obsolete.

Google has faced threats before but never a storm like this one. Three challenges have emerged simultaneously:

1. The rise of AI chatbots like ChatGPT.
2. Changing habits among younger generations in how they find information.
3. Increasing regulatory pressure.

These forces are converging, creating a crisis for Google’s longstanding business model.

Google built its empire on the premise that users would click on search results and, occasionally, ads. Each search costs Google virtually nothing, and each ad click generates pure profit. For decades, this has been a lucrative model.

However, AI assistants are disrupting this system. Every query costs money because it requires significant computing power, and the direct answers AI systems provide eliminate the need to click on ads—or even search results. It’s akin to transitioning from running a media outlet to offering personalized research services for every user. Google’s AI advancements—like its AI model Gemini—are impressive, but they challenge the very model that sustains its profitability.

The youngest generation on the Internet, Gen Z, relies less on traditional search engines than their predecessors. When they want to find a restaurant, they use Instagram; for practical advice, they turn to YouTube or TikTok; for products, they go to Amazon. These behaviors erode Google’s core business.

Google, aware of these changes, has been investing in AI systems for years. Long before ChatGPT made waves, the company identified itself as an AI-driven enterprise. Yet, it faces the “innovation paradox”: It can't fully embrace the future without jeopardizing its profitable present. While pivoting toward the future seems logical, executing that pivot is far from simple.

This dilemma mirrors Microsoft’s challenges a decade ago when it hesitated to prioritize mobile technology to protect Windows. The difference now is that Google’s transition is unfolding much faster, and the stakes are even higher.

Still, no one is predicting the death of Google. The company has vast resources and unmatched talent. What’s under threat is the “Google era,” during which one company served as the default gateway to nearly all human knowledge.

Instead, users are moving toward a more fragmented future. The “discordization” of the internet was just the beginning. Information discovery now happens across multiple platforms and interfaces. Traditional search won’t disappear, but it will become one tool among many—not the universal starting point it once was.

For users, this may be good news. Competition drives innovation, and the diversification of search methods could lead to an explosion of new ways to find and interact with information, especially with generative AI models. Companies like Perplexity are already exploring these possibilities.

Google, the company that once revolutionized information access, is now navigating its own revolution. This moment could mark more than just a turning point in tech history—it could signify the end of an era.

Image | Caio

Related | Google Isn’t the Only One Screwing Up With AI: Apple Intelligence’s Notifications Have Plenty of Room for Improvement