Russia’s Missile Launch in Ukraine Almost Crossed the Red Lines of War. A Few Miles Made All the Difference

The world held its breath last Thursday, believing Russian President Vladimir Putin had finally “pushed the button.” The Ukrainian Air Force claimed Russia had fired a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro. Ultimately, it ended up being a warning in the form of an “experimental missile.” However, it also sent a message to the West with an unprecedented weapon whose range was critical.

The Russian warning. Hours after the launch, Putin announced it was a new missile called Oreshnik, an experimental weapon equipped with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead capable of reaching Mach 10. In its first use in combat, the missile hit a military-industrial site in Dnipro. Russia described the strike as a test and a warning to the West.

Analysts and experts have since provided more context about the incident and the missile’s identity. The weapon used in the attack may have been an RS-26 Rubezh or a variant. Although the missile was officially retired in 2018, the Pentagon has suggested Russia may have partially revived its design. In any case, the strike marked the first use of a ballistic missile in combat at intermediate range, albeit in a conventional configuration. The missile was initially designed to carry nuclear payloads.

Missile characteristics. The Oreshnik (or modified RS-26) would likely classify as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), though some analysts consider it close to an ICBM. The weapon is capable of carrying conventional or nuclear payloads. Experts say it includes a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) system, allowing it to deliver multiple warheads. With a maximum range of up to 3,400 miles, it far surpasses any missiles previously used in the war in Ukraine.

According to The War Zone, the RS-26 was developed in 2018 by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology as a solid-fuel, mobile IRBM. Derived from the RS-24 Yars, it’s about 40 feet long and nearly 6 feet in diameter. Although it has achieved intercontinental ranges in tests, this has only been possible with light payloads, effectively limiting it to intermediate ranges when equipped with nuclear or conventional warheads.

The launch. Russia conducted the attack from Kapustin Yar, about 500 miles from its target in Ukraine. Images of the impact suggest the use of MIRVs, potentially paired with small explosives, decoys, or non-lethal payloads.

This strike could serve as both an experimental test and a strategic deterrent aimed at NATO. By using a conventional IRBM, Russia appears to be showcasing its ability to bypass Ukrainian air defenses while sending a clear message of military strength to the West.

Key miles. The Kremlin has hinted that the RS-26 could technically qualify as an ICBM, meaning a missile capable of traveling beyond 3,400 miles. Why does this matter? The distinction ties back to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned the use of missiles with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles to reduce tensions in Europe.

In 2018, Russia officially announced it was halting RS-26 development, citing INF treaty restrictions. However, the treaty was dissolved in 2019, potentially allowing Russia to resume development. This history explains why the Ukrainian military initially suspected the missile used in Dnipro might be an ICBM. Over time, the consensus that the weapon was an IRBM rather than an ICBM played a crucial role in preventing the conflict from escalating further.

Strategic implications and the future of the RS-26. The apparent resurgence of the RS-26 reflects a trend toward developing non-nuclear strategic weapons designed to signal power without triggering immediate nuclear escalation. However, the attack also highlights the risk of misinterpretation by Ukraine or NATO, given that missiles in this class can carry nuclear warheads.

Whether the Oreshnik represents a direct revival of the RS-26 or a new design inspired by it remains unclear. Either way, Russia has added a new layer of complexity to the war in Ukraine and global deterrence dynamics. The use of strategic missiles as tools of political and military pressure underscores the evolving nature of modern warfare.

Image | U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

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