The U.S. and China are in a race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), a system capable of performing any intellectual task humans can execute.
The U.S. and China are locked in a race to become the first country to develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system. Many U.S.-led sanctions are aimed at preventing China from acquiring advanced semiconductors critical for AI applications. At the same time, China is investing heavily in its domestic semiconductor industry.
Against this backdrop, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has proposed an initiative inspired by the original Manhattan Project, according to Reuters. This World War II-era program brought together many of the world’s leading scientists at the Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, and Hanford facilities between 1942 and 1945 to develop the atomic bomb before Germany. The project concluded in August 1945 with the dropping of two nuclear bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The commission’s plan suggests the U.S. government take the lead in promoting and supporting the development of AGI systems. If approved, the initiative would mirror the large-scale government-private sector collaboration of the original Manhattan Project. Commission member Jacob Helberg emphasized the urgency of the matter, stating, “China is racing towards AGI ... It’s critical that we take them extremely seriously.”
What Is AGI and Why Does It Matter?
AGI refers to an automated system capable of performing any intellectual task humans can achieve. With training, such a system could reason under uncertainty, make judgments, plan, communicate using natural language, and continuously learn. OpenAI defines AGI as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in completing most tasks of economic value.
The terms “artificial general intelligence” and “strong artificial intelligence” are often used interchangeably, though some experts reserve the latter for systems that are self-aware, capable of developing emotions and subjective experiences. Despite recent advancements, today’s AI models remain far from achieving true AGI systems.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted in 2020 that AGI systems would be ready by 2025, though this timeline now appears overly optimistic. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, known for his cautious forecasts, has suggested AGI systems could arrive within five years. Huang’s prediction carries weight, given Nvidia’s leadership in producing the advanced hardware crucial for AI systems. His assessment highlights the importance of preparing for this transformative technology, even as global competition intensifies.
Image | Cash Macanaya (Unsplash)
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