What used to be a rivalry between two powers has now evolved into at least three. The dynamics of nuclear geopolitics have significantly changed in recent times. This particular arms race has expanded the number of nations involved, which now include the U.S., Russia, and China. If there were any lingering doubts about this trend, the Pentagon has made its stance clear in a recently released document spanning 182 pages.
The Asian arsenal. The document indicates that China continues to enhance its military capabilities, particularly its nuclear arsenal. This is despite ongoing corruption investigations within the upper ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). According to the Pentagon, China has added around 100 nuclear warheads in the past year, bringing its estimated total to more than 600 by mid-2024. Its ambition reportedly is to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Although China’s numbers remain significantly below those of the U.S. and Russia, this expansion seems to aim to provide the nation with greater destructive capacity and strategic options in the event of a conflict with the U.S. or other adversaries.
Expanding military infrastructure. The document notes that China has completed the construction of three missile fields, comprising 320 silos in its northern deserts. Additionally, the nation continues to build more silos to accommodate Dongfeng-5 missiles, which can carry multiple warheads. This military modernization is designed to enhance China’s ability to inflict devastating damage in a potential nuclear exchange. According to the Pentagon, it’ll also increase its capacity to threaten U.S. cities, military installations, and leadership.
Diversification. In addition to expanding its arsenal, China is developing a diversified nuclear force that includes lower-yield missiles for precision strikes and intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple escalation options. This represents a significant shift from its traditional nuclear posture. Although Beijing maintains a stated “no first use” policy, the rapid pace of its nuclear modernization has raised alarms in the U.S., according to the Pentagon.
Advanced technologies. The report highlights that China is developing advanced systems, including hypersonic glide vehicles and fractional orbital bombardment systems. These technologies are partly designed to counter U.S. missile defense capabilities, making it more difficult to detect and track a nuclear attack. In 2021, China conducted a test that combined both technologies, solidifying its status as a leader in weapons innovation.
Internal challenges: corruption. As mentioned earlier, China’s military advancements have faced setbacks due to corruption investigations involving senior PLA officials, including defense ministers accused of accepting bribes and selling promotions. While these scandals may have undermined confidence in military leadership, the Pentagon believes that their impact on modernization programs has been limited.
Maritime expansion. Similar to Russia, the Chinese Navy has significantly increased its operational reach, establishing itself as an emerging maritime force capable of operating beyond its regional waters. According to the Pentagon’s report, the PLA has more than 370 ships and has conducted training and operations in distant oceans, including the Eastern Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. It’s also made port calls in Africa and the Middle East.
Since 2008, China has maintained a continuous presence in the Gulf of Aden, in the Indian Ocean, with a permanent base in Djibouti. This demonstrates its ambition to project power beyond its borders.
Fleet modernization. In recent developments, older naval platforms have been replaced by modern, multi-purpose vessels equipped with advanced anti-ship, anti-submarine, and anti-aircraft weapon systems. A notable example is the Renhai-class cruiser (Type 055), which features a 112-cell vertical launch system and multi-mission capabilities. It’s also larger than its U.S. counterparts.
Additionally, the development of aircraft carriers like the Fujian, the first locally designed carrier featuring electromagnetic catapults, enhances air projection capabilities. This initiative is complemented by an expanding fleet of amphibious ships, including the Type 071 and Type 075 designs, which are prepared for expeditionary operations and long-range logistics support.
Taiwan. The report also discusses the latent threat associated with China’s naval reinforcement. According to the Pentagon, this is particularly the case with Taiwan, which Beijing considers an indivisible part of its territory.
While China has increased air and naval operations near the island, the Pentagon points out that it still faces significant challenges. These include limitations in urban warfare and the maintenance of supplies over long distances, which make a reliable amphibious invasion difficult. For now, a potential attack on Taiwan poses considerable political and military risks for the PLA.
U.S. response. In response to China’s military advancements, the Biden administration appears to have strengthened alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and developed force dispersal strategies to facilitate rapid strikes against Chinese assets. The recent report could influence the incoming Trump administration’s approach. President-elect Donald Trump could redirect the attention to the growing Chinese military threat in a global context already marked by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Implications. The report sheds light on the debate in Washington regarding the modernization and expansion of nuclear capabilities, particularly through Project 25. China is transforming its nuclear force into a key pillar of its military power, integrating advanced technology and expanding its arsenal at an alarming pace for the U.S.
This development, along with China’s focus on overcoming American defenses, is reshaping the global strategic landscape. As such, it brings the Asian nation closer to the level of nuclear threat historically posed by the U.S. and Russia. Moreover, this modernization and expansion at sea directly challenge U.S. naval dominance, a cornerstone of the global order since World War II.
According to the Office of Naval Intelligence, China’s shipbuilding industry is 200 times more productive than that of the U.S. This accelerates China’s ability to project maritime power and challenge the U.S. for strategic control of key routes and nearby territories in the foreseeable future. The recent report suggests a potential path for the next administration to further increase defense spending.
Image | Philip McMaster | Steve Jurvetson
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