If what some experts are beginning to suggest is true—that the war in Ukraine cannot be sustained beyond 2025, particularly on the Russian side—the end may be near. The only question is how it will unfold. In a move that could accelerate the conflict, President Joe Biden has reportedly lifted restrictions on long-range missile use, marking a significant escalation. The U.S. has now inserted itself more directly in the conflict, with all eyes on a “long-range” device.
Biden lifts the ban. Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles in attacks inside Russian territory, marking a turning point in the conflict. The decision includes ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 186 miles, and specifically targets Russian and possibly North Korean forces in the Kursk region.
The move, which hasn’t been officially confirmed by the White House, is reportedly linked to the presence of 10,000 North Korean troops who have allegedly joined Russian forces. This marks the first deployment of Pyongyang’s ground forces abroad since the Korean War in 1953. According to Forbes, North Korea could send as many as 100,000 additional troops if its alliance with Russia strengthens. The timing is significant: The decision represents a major policy shift just two months before President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office.
Why now? That’s the big question. The BBC reports that, in addition to North Korea’s involvement, the move may aim to strengthen Ukraine’s position ahead of potential peace negotiations. By doing so, Biden seeks to ensure that Ukraine holds an advantage both on the battlefield and in any future diplomatic talks.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the decision was made to maximize military support for Kyiv before Trump, who has criticized military aid to Ukraine, takes office.
What are ATACMS missiles? Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, ATACMS missiles are short-range ballistic systems designed to strike strategic targets over long distances. They have a range of up to 186 miles and can carry a 485-pound explosive payload or cluster munitions. The U.S. launches the missiles from HIMARS mobile platforms, already delivered to Ukraine, and from M270 launchers supplied by the U.K. and Germany.
Developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets, ATACMS was one of the first U.S. precision-guided systems. The Pentagon’s inventory currently includes two types: one with a single explosive charge and another with cluster munitions. However, the second one is limited due to post-combat risks to civilians. The advantages? Their high-altitude flight and supersonic descent make them ideal for attacking fortified positions, logistical nodes, and troop concentrations.
ATACMS in Ukraine. According to the BBC, Ukraine’s authorization to use these missiles enables it to target key sites in Russia, likely starting in the Kursk region. Such strikes could disrupt Russian military operations by forcing equipment and infrastructure farther from the front lines, stretching supply lines and reducing air response capabilities.
However, experts caution that the number of missiles available will be limited. While ATACMS will be useful, they’re unlikely to decisively alter the course of the war. The missiles may also have a psychological impact, particularly if used against symbolic targets like the Kerch Bridge.
International implications and possible responses. Biden’s decision could influence other Western allies, such as the UK and France, to use long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow against targets in Russia.
At the same time, the move risks escalating tensions with Moscow. According to the BBC, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Western weapons used against Russian territory would be considered direct NATO involvement, fundamentally changing the war. What does that mean? Only Putin knows. While he has yet to act on previous threats tied to Western tanks and aircraft provided to Ukraine, concerns persist that this could cross a “red line.”
What about Trump? The last thing a war needs is gasoline—and soon, the most unpredictable actor may arrive: Trump. His return to the presidency introduces uncertainty about the continuity of U.S. policies. While Trump has pledged to end the war quickly, he hasn’t specified how, leaving questions about his approach.
Some of Trump’s allies have criticized the ATACMS authorization, while others argue that increased arms deliveries could pressure Russia into negotiating.
For Ukraine, the fear is that a leadership change in the U.S. could limit or revoke missile deliveries, significantly undermining its military capabilities and weakening its negotiating position without ATACMS on the table.
Image | Kelly Michals
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