2023 was a record-breaking year for temperatures. It was the warmest year, with every month since June setting a new monthly temperature record. The string of consecutive records continued through June of this year.
Above 1.5 degrees Celsius. Now, 2024 is on track to surpass last year’s temperature record. According to estimates from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the EU’s Earth observation program, 2024 will be the first year in which the average global temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average.
More than just a number. A 1.5-degree Celsius increase may not sound significant, but it’s a worrisome global average. The 2015 Paris Agreement set this level as a critical warming limit.
The goal was keeping greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that would prevent the global temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average. Staying below 1.5 degrees Celsius is seen as a safer threshold, as exceeding it could trigger severe changes in Earth’s systems.
15 out of 16 months above 1.5 degrees Celsius. Since July 2023, the average monthly temperature of the planet has been at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average in every month except July 2024, according to the latest data from C3S. That’s 15 out of the last 16 months above the threshold.
As a result, C3S notes that it is “virtually certain” the annual average for 2024 will also exceed this threshold. So far, 2023 has been the warmest year, with a temperature 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average.
Forecasts, with two months left in the year, estimate that the average will be about 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79 degrees Fahrenheit) above that average.
C3S data. The Copernicus program tracks global and European climate using the ERA5 and ERA5-Land databases, which are derived from its own data and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Bad news. This year is on track to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, but it’s not yet an irreversible problem. While the global temperature is undeniably rising, external factors can still cause fluctuations within that trend.
2023 and 2024 will likely be hot years, even in the context of climate change. One reason is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. El Niño, the warm phase of this oscillation, occurred during parts of 2023 and 2024.
A year ago, climate models projected that global temperatures would reach the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold by the end of this decade. The models may have underestimated the rate of warming. Still, it’s possible that the next few years will align with a gradual average rate of increase. Only time will tell where the trend lies and where variability comes into play. The challenge, of course, is that time isn’t a luxury we have on Earth.
Image | Maud CORREA (Unsplash)
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