Reducing working time is a hot topic in many countries. In March, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) introduced a bill to reduce the standard workweek from 40 to 32 hours. Although the bill will likely not be passed, some high-profile figures, like Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, advocate for an even more radical approach: a three-day workweek. However, this may take decades to implement, given that very few companies can afford the required investment.
Dependence on AI. In 2023, in an interview on Trevor Noah’s podcast What Now?, Gates expressed his enthusiasm for the potential of AI to significantly enhance productivity and reshape the business landscape in the future.
“As big as the introduction of the PC.” According to the Microsoft co-founder, the use of artificial intelligence will be so crucial for the industry that it could reduce the workweek to three days. This would allow people more leisure time without compromising company productivity. During the interview, Gates said, “I don’t think AI’s impact will be as dramatic as the Industrial Revolution, but it certainly will be as big as the introduction of the PC. Word processing applications didn’t do away with office work, but they changed it forever. Employers and employees had to adapt, and they did.”
Bicycles for productivity. Apple co-founder Steve Jobs once described computers as “bicycles for the mind,” emphasizing how computing enhances human capabilities. Similarly, Gates discussed the potential effects of AI on production processes on Trevor Noah’s podcast.
“If you eventually get a society where you only have to work three days a week, that’s probably OK. If the machines can make all the food and the stuff, we don’t have to work as hard,” he said. “In the near term, the productivity gain you get from AI is very exciting. It’s taking away part of the drudge work,” he added.
However, considering artificial general intelligence is still in its infancy, AI’s maturity is still a long way off. Current AI applications are still limited to specific sectors such as programming, analytics, and certain areas of investment.
Decades of investment will leave many behind. According to the State of AI in 2022 study by the consulting firm McKinsey, in 2017, only 20% of participating companies reported using AI in at least one area of their operations. Meanwhile, by 2022, that figure had risen to 50%. Additionally, 63% of respondents indicated plans to invest in AI within the next three years.
Given these investment trends, it may take decades for Gates’ vision to be realized across the entire industrial sector. This is similar to how, 40 years after computers were introduced, many small and medium-sized enterprises have yet to undergo digital transformation.
Changes in professional roles. Gates encourages everyone to reflect on how computers transformed industries and reshaped professional roles. He suggests that professions such as teaching, sales, and customer service may diminish as others have in the past, but this will transition into a supervisory role over AI operations.
For Gates, reducing working hours shouldn’t be viewed negatively, especially if it’s balanced by increased productivity resulting from AI adoption. He cites examples from Iceland and Japan, where reduced workweeks have already been introduced.
Theory versus reality. While Gates’ vision appears feasible on paper, particularly with the rapid advancements in AI technology, experts note that the actual state of American companies presents a much more complex scenario.
According to Allison Schrager, an economics expert at Bloomberg, a 32-hour work week could significantly harm the economy, particularly for businesses. In countries that already have reduced workweeks, like Iceland, this change has led to the need to hire more employees, which has increased labor costs and could lead to the closure of many companies.
Meanwhile, Preston Taylor, head of people and culture at HR management software startup Helios, says that implementing a shorter workweek “would struggle to be successful in a much larger economy and work-obsessed culture like we have in the U.S.” Similarly, Grant Cardone, the real estate fund Cardone Capital CEO, told FOX Business, “Four-day work weeks would be a disaster for this country, that already has exported too many jobs to other countries with better work ethic.”
In the end, transitioning to a short workweek–whether it consists of four or three days–will likely require a substantial investment from companies, which seems unlikely to occur any time soon.
Image | Sam Churchill | Austin Distel
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